Over half of the U.S. has been vaccinated, and the reopening of the economy is in full swing. With holdouts and the Delta variant becoming the prevalent strain, more uncertainty and volatility have worked their way back into markets. First and Second quarter Real GDP increased at about a 6.5% annualized rate, and inflation picked up more than expected. The U.S. economy regained the full GDP decline from the first half of 2020 a little more quickly than expected due to a swift vaccine roll-out and record stimulus. Strong GDP growth and higher inflation were anticipated for the first half of 2021, but estimates for the second half of 2021 and beyond have become less certain. Inflation has gone up 5.4% over the past year with core prices (e.g., food and energy) up 4.5%. We see both GDP growth and inflation moderating in the second half of the year.

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