Economic weakness in 2020, due to Covid-19, will likely be recovered in 2021 as unprecedented stimulus has been injected into the global economy. Real GDP in the U.S. is likely to have been down 3.5%-4% and estimates for 2021 are for 4%-6% growth. Forecasts put U.S. GDP back to its high-water mark sometime in the 2nd half of 2021. A 4% growth rate would be the highest since the late 1990’s and over 6% would be the highest going back to 1984. While vaccines have proven effective, getting them out to the right people in a timely and efficient manner has been bumpy. The strong projections for strong economic growth are dependent on most of the U.S. population being vaccinated by mid-to-late Spring. The first quarter is expected to see slower economic growth due to the pick-up in cases and longer lockdowns in the Northeast and California with the second and third quarters to come in very strong. Unemployment will continue to decline below 6%, but the longer lock-downs are likely to increase the duration of unemployment and the deterioration of skills that will need to be built back.

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